Global subscription video-on-demand (SVoD) revenues will reach US$127 billion by 2029, up from $107 billion in 2023, according to Digital TV Research.
The US and China will account for half of the 2029 total, with the former adding $2 billion of the $20 billion extra SVoD revenues between 2023 and 2029. Brazil, Germany, Japan and South Korea will each add $1 billion in SVoD revenues.
Netflix is expected to remain the biggest SVoD operator, generating $12 billion extra revenue between 2023 and 2029 to hit the $34 billion mark. This is more than the amount expected to be generated by its closest competitors — Disney+ ($13.6 billion), HBO ($8.2 billion) and Paramount ($6.8) — combined.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst, Digital TV Research, said, “The key metric for the main SVoD platforms has moved away from subscriber growth to profitability.”
Where advertising video-on-demand (AVoD) is concerned, revenues for TV series and movies are expected to reach US$69 billion by 2029, up from $39 billion in 2023. The US will contribute 31% to the 2029 AVoD total, down from 40% in 2023. The US will increase by $6 billion between 2023 and 2029, with China adding about half that amount.
Murray added, “These forecasts are a lot lower than our previous edition due to lower ad growth and as platforms have delayed and/or scaled back their expansion plans.
“Most hybrid AVoD-SVoD tiers offered will be in developed markets. Few platforms want to risk antagonising the investment community by expanding these services into developing markets where the rewards are lower.”